Recently, I had the pleasure of attending a webinar provided by Resilience Beyond Observed Capabilities (RBOC) Network + as part of my internship with RISCS. Presented by established sci-fi writers Allen Stroud and Emma Newman, the webinar explored ways in which we could imagine a future society in crisis. Newman and Stroud demonstrated how one might attempt to understand the future through the perspective of the living present via techniques such as narrative modelling, and how this could enable us to foresee potential crises and take preventive measures. The webinar offered insights into the vital importance of the creative writer’s perspective—particularly that of the sci-fi writer— for futures thinking.
What is the Role of Science Fiction Writers in Predicting Future Crises?
Science fiction writers craft narratives that explore the potential and the uncertain. Stroud refers to these narratives as ‘accuracy adjacent’ because, though they cannot predict the future perfectly, they can help us consider numerous possibilities. It is, of course, impossible to predict the future with complete accuracy, but we can make our predictions as accurate as possible by looking at many variables whilst acknowledging our human capacity.
In recent years, the Ministry of Defence has recruited sci-fi writers under the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). They commissioned two authors, PW Singer and August Cole, to write Stories from Tomorrow: Exploring New Technology Through Useful Fiction, a series of eight ‘useful fiction’ stories inspired by potential future threats. Their work allows us to explore what might happen if potential threats come to the surface and encourages us to challenge established thought.
Dstl’s use of science fiction authors highlights creative writers’ ability to challenge the boundaries of possibility and, crucially, to visualise it. Through sci-fi narrative, we are able to confront our anxieties towards the future and imagine ourselves in unique scenarios. A notable example of this is the fact that many sci-fi writers explored what we as a society would do if we were to be placed in a pandemic situation, long before the Covid-19 outbreak even began: Mandel’s Station Eleven (2014) explored a virus wiping out society, and Brooks’ World War Z (2006) explored the repercussions for survivors of a zombie apocalypse and pandemic.
In imagining society in different scenarios through their narratives, sci-fi writers take us with them on a journey alongside their protagonists. The empathy we feel for these characters means that we care more about the scenarios in which they are involved. At the same time, the fables of good and evil that we have been told since we were children condition us to evaluate characters’ actions in moral and ethical terms. As we read about societies dealing with numerous anxieties—such as environmental devastation, technology taking over, or even social deviance—we analyse characters’ actions and psychology; in doing so, we turn the analysis upon ourselves, and may find ourselves considering how to prevent the unwanted futures that those characters face.
The Importance of Human Writers in the Age of AI
That we need to feel empathy in order for narrative scenarios to feel relevant to us is, in itself, one of the most important reasons we need human sci-fi writers, rather than stories written by Artificial Intelligence (AI). The emergence of AI has led some to question the necessity of human authors now that AI can produce a piece of writing from a prompt in seconds. However, Newman made a compelling argument that humanity will remain essential to effective story-writing: AI can write text and generate data rapidly, but it lacks the human emotion and values that real people accrue through their experience.
As a result of their human experience, sci-fi writers are able to create characters with whom we are more likely to empathise, as we see ourselves in them. This, in turn, enables writers to use these characters to think about what real people would do in certain scenarios. For example, writers can help us navigate the uncertainties surrounding an increasingly AI-driven world by exposing ethical dilemmas, exploring the relationship between humans and technology, and envisioning societies that are grappling with areas of potential conflict, such as cyber threats. I would therefore have to agree with Newman’s outlook and argue that humanity needs to remain at the core of our society’s future.
Envisioning a Resilient Future
Imagining a future society in crisis requires a blend of creativity and foresight. Science fiction writers play a significant role in this process. They offer us insights into potential futures while reminding us of the core values that guide our decisions. The webinar expressed the importance of what characters can reveal. Notably, big changes are often revealed through mundane actions. Characters surviving in crisis ask us to reflect on the little things we take for granted, and encourage us to question what we would do in a given scenario.
The moral lessons we take from stories can motivate us to fight to prevent specific crises. For example, Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale (1985) illustrated how women’s reproductive rights can be limited by totalitarian regimes that aim to oppress women. This issue has become especially relevant in real-world America after the overturning of Roe vs Wade in 2022. Perhaps most recently, people are returning to Michael Crichton’s Jurassic Park (1990) as news of scientists bringing back dire wolves from extinction through DNA manipulation has provided uneasy similarities to Crichton’s novel. However, stories do not have to adopt a dystopian outlook in envisioning a future crisis. Stroud pointed to his own works, Harbinger and Those Who have Left Us, as examples of narratives in which hope enables people to come together in a crisis.
By exploring accuracy-adjacent stories, then, we can better prepare for the challenges ahead and work towards a future that is both innovative and inclusive.
Recommended reading
- Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale: A feminist dystopian novel in which handmaids serve as childbearing slaves for rich wives who cannot have children due to widespread pollution that affects fertility. Explores what could happen in a totalitarian state set in America.
- Max Brooks, World War Z: Imagines the repercussions of a pandemic where a virus creates a zombie apocalypse. Follows the survivors as they establish a new normal.
- Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park: A science fiction thriller in which scientists have managed to bring back dinosaurs from extinction as a result of genetic engineering and DNA from a prehistoric mosquito.
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World: Huxley anticipated issues related to genetic engineering and consumer culture, themes that remain relevant as we navigate advancements in biotechnology.
- George Orwell, 1984: A classic which explores themes of surveillance and government control. Resonates strongly with modern concerns about privacy and data security.
- Mike Pearl, The Day It Finally Happens: Well-researched text that explores how society would cope in different scenarios, such as a nuclear war or a global loss of internet.
- PW Singer and August Cole, Stories from Tomorrow: Exploring New Technology Through Useful Fiction: Explores what could happen if potential threats like terrorism come to the surface. Written by two sci-fi writers for Dstl.
- Kim Stanley Robinson, The Ministry for the Future: Following Aristotle’s advice on creating an epic, two women create a tapestry novel that illustrates multiple perspectives, showcasing the scale of the climate crisis. Robinson provides a well-researched story in which humanity solves the climate crisis.
- Allen Stroud, Harbinger: Chaos is rising as a woman (Lisa) with cancer is cured by the Pandoravirus. Society is collapsing through disease and climate change. Lisa’s miracle could potentially lead to exploitation for her blood. A story of hope and horror.
- Allen Stroud, Those Who have Left Us: Two fragments of text, one a newspaper and the other a letter. Both are related to the deadly outbreak of a virus. A story of courage in the face of certain death.
Emma Fowler
BA student, University of Gloucestershire
RISCS student intern, spring 2025
April 2025